A Scary Scenario

Yet another loyal reader sent me his analysis of the Belmont and it is not pretty. In fact, it is downright scary.

Of course, the first scenario is that it is a two horse race between Big Brown and Casino Drive, ideally culminating in a stretch duel for the ages. Then there is the possibility that either Casino Drive or Big Brown will simply run away with the race.

The scary part is the third scenario based on this reader's analysis of both Ruffian and Eight Belles. Yes, you know the connection between these two horses, hence the scary nature of the prognostication.

It is this reader's opinion that when both Ruffian and Eight Belles broke down, they were, as he puts it, "in another orbit where there was little even their good jockeys could do to control them." In other words, they were running on heart and determination and both were being beaten by another horse, something that had never happened to either of them. As he says: "I think part of the reason both of these great horses broke down was that neither had lost a recent race...and they would do ANYTHING to catch a horse running in front of them."

Need I tell you that neither Big Brown nor Casino Drive have ever been passed by another horse? Need I tell you that if the two of them are in a stretch duel down that LONG Belmont stretch both will be doing everything in their power to get by the other?

And need I remind you of that old adage that only the truly great horses break down trying to win?

Let's pray for safe journeys for all the competitors.