My Father's Derby Picks

My father taught me how to read The Racing Form when I was about ten years old and I learned all of my handicapping skills from him. He is a far better handicapper than I ever will be because he does it a lot. But if pinch comes to shove, I can read a Racing Form with the best of them.

There are few hard and fast rules in handicapping but my father does have about three that are worth considering when you are trying to pick a winner.

Rule 1: Bet on any horse coming off the turf onto the dirt. That seems to be one of his favorites and it usually works.

Rule 2: Be wary of a horse moving down in class unless you can see a legitimate reason for it. The same applies to distance unless it is obvious that a horse is a sprinter and was running in mile and half races.

Rule 3: Know which trainers know what they are doing. I'm not going into details here but suffice it to say that, according to my father, there are an awful lot of people training horses who don't have a clue. Once in a while they may get lucky, but it's only going to be once in a while. Talent trumps luck over the long haul.

That's it. Oh, I'm sure he has a few other tricks up his sleeve but he rarely gets swayed by sentiment. He makes his picks based on what the horse has accomplished and rarely can be persuaded to throw out a "bad" race. If a horse doesn't run well, then he won't bet on it.

So, without further ado, here are my father's picks for this year's Kentucky Derby. Remember you heard it here first:

Win: Colonel John
Place: Court Vision
Show: Monba
He recommends a 10-4-14 Exacta Box.

Good luck and safe racing!