Speed versus Strength

There is an article in the Canadian Press about breeding thoroughbreds for speed versus durability that is an excellent summary of the recent discussions on the topic precipitated by Eight Belle's untimely breakdown at the end of the Kentucky Derby nearly two weeks ago. It quotes Dr. Larry Bramlage, the face of on-track disasters lately at these major events, stating that the breed is getting weaker because top stallions and mares are being judged by their ability to produce foals that win early races with colossal payouts." In other words, "If we want durability we have to select for it--and we really don't. We select for their ability to win."

This discussion reminded me of my interview with Headley Bell, bloodstock advisor to the Jacksons when we talked about the qualities he looked for when recommending matings. In the case of the Jacksons, his first objective was to work with the blooodstock they had, including the broodmare La Ville Rouge.

He liked Dynaformer because he felt he was a horse on the way up in terms of producing stakes winners and he bred size and toughness. La Ville is on the small side and compact. Whenever possible, Bell favors horses on the way up in terms of producing winners, rather than those with proven track records. First of all, they may be overpriced because nothing in this business is guaranteed. And second of all, a rising star is still rising, not on the decline.

Nonetheless, he does not rely on mathematical models (of which there are many in this business) or lineage or even probability. He calls it good old fashioned "horse sense" combined with luck. "You put it all into a pot, let it simmer like a stew, and sometimes you get lucky," he told me.

Of course, the bigger question is whether or not luck will strike twice, three or even four times as Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother begins his tutelage under Michael Matz. Could the pairing of Dynaformer and La Ville Rouge produce another champion the likes of Barbaro? Could they have stumbled on the magic formula? In other words, could they possibly get lucky twice?

Nicanor doesn't seem to mind the attention; in fact, he seems to know there is something special about him. But then again, anything is possible in pre-season. For now, it's enough to think big.