Crystal Ball of Publishing

It's that time of year when we are hearing roundups on the Year in Publishing and reports about what to expect going forward. Not surprisingly, this has been the year in which most of the doom and gloom predictions about the industry have come true and have many of the pundits pondering whether or not magazines, newspapers and other forms of "traditional" media will continue to exist in an e-reader populated universe.

On the local front, it is most interesting and certainly confusing. Even as our local paper, The Inquirer, lays off another 65 people, its publisher writes a feel good editorial assuring his readers that things have never been better. I continue to get thick, ad-filled magazines about the Philadelphia region (actually MANY magazines that seem to share readership), all of them glossy and printed on good paper.

Yet, I read such predictions as this one from Bob Sacks of the Precision Media Group, warning that "2009 will be the year that traditional print media looks in the mirror and says, "Hey, my newsstand circulation looks awfully bloated; I think I should go on a serious returns diet." And this one from Steven Kotok, General Manager of The Week, "Many more magazines will lower rate base, reduce frequency, and rebrand in some way."

Most prognosticators are warning of the continued rise of internet publications but none have figured out how contributors to these web-zines will or should get paid. Many web start-ups offer that ubiquitous "exposure" to their contributors but to writers used to getting paid by the word, exposure never bought a tank of gas.

For my part, I am, to a certain extent, feeling lucky because a lot of my business, among the upper end alumni magazines of the world, is both web and print based. I don't think these magazines run the risk of extinction because not all of the alumni who read them are web-savvy--but I do think they may tinker with frequency and start to solicit subscriptions as universities struggle with the downturns in their endowments. I do think they will remain dependent on freelancers as universities enact quiet hiring freezes.

Books, however, in my humble opinion, are an endangered species--not because people are going to stop reading--but because publishers are going to stop taking risks (as if they haven't already). Celebrity tomes will remain the dominant life form until the readers go on strike and refuse to buy them. Until that happens, independent publishers may see an upsurge--but authors will remain under-reimbursed for their efforts. Look to academic presses to make a resurgence--no joke. They are used to operating on a shoestring.

What's the price of all this belt tightening? Less choice in bookstores, less mind-stretching bestsellers, less money all around but chances are you will still be able to find a niche publications if you look long and hard. But nobody is getting rich off of it.