Only Two More Weeks!

Today is the last major prep race for the Kentucky Derby the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. True it is only two weeks before the run for the roses and it would be hard to run a horse back so quickly, but stranger things have happened--like Mine that Bird winning last years race at 50 to 1.

I actually don't think that any horse in the field today will be a contender because I still think the horse to beat is Eskendereya, winner of both the Wood Memorial and the Fountain of Youth. He will certainly be the favorite come May 1, and that comes with its own set of superstitions.

Sidney's Candy is undefeated in his last three races, all of them on the polytrack at Santa Anita. Lookin at Lucky ran third in the Arkansas Derby and might be peaking at just the right time. I'm also not ruling out Line of David who is also undefeated since the addition of blinkers or American Lion who won the Illinois Derby on April 3.

In considering this year's Derby, I think it is important to distinguish a potential Derby winner from a potential Triple Crown winner. It is one thing--a huge thing to be sure--to win the Derby and quite another to contend for the Triple Crown. When you are considering your picks, it is always wise to concentrate on the race at hand, rather than consider all three races. True, racing would love the possibility of a Triple Crown to generate some new fans for the sport but it is unfair to any horse competing in any of the races to expect such a feat. I just don't think we are breeding, training or racing such accomplished equine athletes these days.

Which takes nothing away from winning any leg of the endeavor. Its just that winning all three should be left to the Super Horses, one of which would have distinguished himself by now, if he was such an animal. Is Eskendereya such a horse? Perhaps, but so far, he has not given me goose bumps a la Secretariat or Barbaro. Could he? Only time will tell.

Is it anybody's race? Maybe. The Kentucky Derby levels the playing field by being such a large field, and one would like to think that the horse that is best on that day wins. Does that mean he is the best horse? Not necessarily, just the one who gets to the finish line first.