The Plot Thickens

And so, as they say, the plot thickens. First Eskandereya bows out with an injury and now Rule follows suit. After consulting with trainer Todd Pletcher, Bill Casner, co-owner of WinStar Farm announced that Rule would not be competing in this year's run for the roses.

According to Casner, there is nothing wrong physically with Rule; they just don't like the way he has been working at Churchill.

In other news, Pletcher confirmed that his filly, Devil May Care, would indeed be entered in the Derby and not the Oaks as previously suspected. So if you are keeping score, Pletcher loses two and gains one.

A couple of observations in no particular order:

First, I think it is a big jump in class for Devil May Care. I think she is a very nice filly but she is moving from a grade II win to a grade I win in an all male division. I wouldn't lose sleep over her chances. (Watch, she will win going way!)

Second, Rule finished a neck ahead of Lenny in the Florida Derby and has been withdrawn from competition in the Derby because he really is not a Derby contender. A nice horse, indeed. But not the winner of the Kentucky Derby. Which means that neither is Lenny--at least not the Lenny who last ran in the Florida Derby. Could he have been if races had materialized when none did and he was able to break his maiden a little earlier in the season? Maybe. He is a late bloomer, like many Dynaformers.

Third, who is sitting on that bubble but none other than Backtalk, son of Smarty Jones?! I would dearly love to see him make the cut and stranger things have happened. His connections are very high on this horse but he will need another defector to get into the big dance.

For sentimental reasons, I like Line of David, if the track clears up between now and then. His last workout in the slop proved he does not like the stuff. And I also like Ice Box because he is a strong closer and with 20 horses in the race, unless you go out in front and stay there--by that I mean pull away at the top of the stretch--the cattle shoot mentality favors a late runner.

Stay tuned. There may yet be more surprises!