Leveling the Racing Surface

It seems as if the use of synthetic racing surfaces has thrown all the Derby handicappers into a bit of a quandary. They simply do not know how to accurately compare races from synthetic tracks to those on dirt or turf and all of their "systems" have gone out the window. The New York Times reported yesterday that the guru of all handicappers, Andrew Beyer, has admitted that his speed figures (previously the gold standard by which many handicappers make their bets) are "next to worthless in the synthetic era."

To complicate matters further, there is no uniformity among synthetic surfaces. A Polytrack races differently than one made of Tapeta or Cushion and not even those well versed in workout fractions can seem to come up with a formula to level the playing fields. All of which led the New York Times to ponder whether or not we are in the "throes" of another "significant" change in horse racing (the triumph of the tote board, the invention of the starting gate and the acceptance of simulcasting being the three most recent ones).

To be sure, surface is a huge deal but not all dirt tracks are the same, just as turf differs from course to course. I'm more inclined to agree with Eric Banks who wrote (in the NY Times) that this new complaint is just a variation on the old problem of how to figure out how to compare horses who compete on different surfaces at different tracks.

Barbaro could run on anything--grass, dirt and even slop--and so could Secretariat. I hate to sound like a spoil sport but it seems like synthetic surfaces have just added another variable to the numerous ones that already exist in horse racing. Change is never easy and it usually involves adjustments (just like adding a third puppy to a very settled two dog household!) but eventually it all works out. The time may come when synthetic surfaces become the norm and then the handicappers will be moaning about how to calculate training sessions on dirt into their "full-proof" systems.

If you had it all figured out, it wouldn't be a horse race, and that, in the end, is what makes the sport interesting. If anything, the synthetic surface variable should make the sport more appealing to those who bet by hunch because who is to say they are any less knowledgeable than the pundits who admit they don't know how to compare apples to grapes. Especially sour ones.