Tempting Fate or Creating a Dynasty?

Nicanor seems to be on everyone's mind these days, including those in the breeding industry who are marveling at the possibility of the proverbial lightening striking twice. According to The Bloodhorse, a study which analyzed the dams of 199 Eclipse Champions through 2007, found that they produced 233 full siblings to 144 winners, 53 stakes winners and 33 graded stakes winners. That's 61.8%, 22.7% and 14.2% respectively.

In other words, we shouldn't be as surprised (as many of us are) that the pairing of La Ville Rouge and Dynaformer has come through yet again in Nicanor. Granted he has only two wins, neither of them stakes wins, but hopes are high in the Jackson camp for his future. Rumor has it that his next start will be in the Virgina Derby at Charlestown in mid-July.

It does appear, however, that the Dynaformer era may be coming to an end. He is getting older and may well be coming to the end of his reproductive career. La Ville Rouge is once again in foal to him (and will presumably be bred back once again if all goes well), but it is clear that the pairing is not going to continue forever. Wouldn't it just be amazing if she bore enough siblings to replicate the fox hounds in the famous lithograph and not one more?

There are of course many schools of thought with regard to breeding back to the same sire. "Why not breed to a stallion with whom the mare has had a major runner?" asks Rick Abbott of Charlton Bloodstock in Cochranville, PA. Then again, why tempt fate? "Someone gave me breeding advice that you should never send your mare back to the same stallion again and again...because the likelihood of getting repeat success is slim," counters Pennsylvania owner and breeder, Toni Kirwan.

As for the Jacksons, well they are apparently of the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" school of thought. "It worked once with Barbaro, why not again?" notes Gretchen Jackson. "Nicanor ran well in breaking his maiden and he looks very promising. We are really reluctant to leave Dynaformer."

The Jacksons also have the benefit of breeding for themselves, not for profit, so there is not the pressure to "try the new hot stallion" as Gretchen puts it. For them, upsetting the status quo is a risk while with Dynaformer, they have a"proven commodity."

And that, as they say, is what makes horse racing such a fascinating game. Because one strategy is often just as good as another. "Breed the best to the best and hope for the best" goes the adage. Let's hope Nicanor keeps proving the naysayers wrong!