Rosie Gets Her Roses!

Rosie Napravnik rode Believe You Can to victory in the Kentucky Oaks yesterday. On a day dedicated to the fillies, Napravnik became the first female jockey to win the Oaks. Breaking from the 9 post position, Believe You Can went off at 13 to 1, returning $29.60 on a two dollar bet.

Broadway's Alibi was second and Grace Hall finished third. The race was delayed by fierce thunderstorms that forced officials to clear the track for almost an hour.

“It’s unbelievable,” said Napravnik. “I couldn’t even tell you what I’m feeling. It feels like when your dreams are coming true. The filly is all talent and all heart and she certainly showed that today.”

Broadway's Alibi took the lead early, breaking smartly from the 6 hole but Believe You Can was right behind her all the way around. Napravnik, in perfect position, made her move at the top of the stretch and got a second gear out of the filly with the wire in sight.

That strategy, avoiding the crowds and shooting straight for the lead out of the gate, is certainly the preferred way to win the Kentucky Derby today. Of course, you must have a horse that breaks well and can beat the pack in that cattle charge, but I truly believe it is the safest way to go.

Let's see if my predictions come true. I hope Union Rags has the stuff to get out of the gate quickly and avoid the stampede and that he doesn't get trapped on the rail. My horses, stacked right across the track in post positions 3, 4, and 5 all need to get to the lead but also move away from the rail. It's a tricky strategy but the Kentucky Derby is often won in the first turn.